If you’re a parent, you’ve likely felt it: the last-minute notification that the bus route is canceled, the scramble to arrange alternate transportation, or the worry as your child’s only reliable way to get to school becomes increasingly unreliable. The national school bus driver shortage, a persistent problem since the pandemic, has improved ever so slightly, but new analysis confirms it remains a massive stressor on our K-12 public education system.

While recent wage growth has helped attract a few more drivers, the overall picture is still bleak. As of late 2025, there are still nearly 1 in 10 fewer school bus drivers on the road compared to 2019. This isn’t just an inconvenience; it’s a barrier to education. Districts from Missouri to Maine have been forced to cut routes, leaving some students—including those with disabilities who rely on specialized transportation—without a sure way to get to class. This instability directly contributes to increased absenteeism and can even mean missed school meals for children who depend on them.

Why Are We Seeing a Small Uptick? Follow the Money.

The silver lining in this cloudy situation is a simple economic principle: when you pay more, you attract more workers. After years of stagnation, school bus drivers have finally seen some of the strongest real wage growth in over a decade. In the past year, their median hourly wage has grown by over 4%, a clear signal that desperate school districts are using every tool they have to compete for a limited pool of workers.

This is a crucial investment. Being a school bus driver is no easy job. It often requires a challenging “split-shift” schedule that makes it difficult to find a second job, and it has historically been a low-wage profession. This recent pay raise is a necessary and long-overdue step toward making the job a sustainable career.

The Bigger Picture: Other School Support Staff Are Struggling Too

It’s important to recognize that bus drivers aren’t the only ones feeling the pinch. When we look at the entire ecosystem of K-12 support staff, a troubling pattern emerges. While the overall education workforce has slightly grown since 2019, the recovery has been wildly uneven.

  • Paraprofessionals, like teaching assistants, have seen significant growth.
  • However, teachers and food service workers have seen their numbers decline.
  • Most alarmingly, school custodians have experienced an even deeper employment drop than bus drivers, down over 12%.

This shows a systemic issue in valuing and retaining the essential workers who keep our schools running, safe, and clean.

A Looming Storm: Why Recent Progress Is at Severe Risk

Just as schools are beginning to find a fragile footing, two major threats are converging that could wipe out the recent progress entirely.

First, the financial life raft that schools have relied on—federal pandemic relief funds—has officially ended. Billions of dollars that helped districts stay afloat and offer competitive wages have dried up. Many of the recent wage increases for bus drivers and other staff were directly supported by this temporary funding. Without a new source of revenue, districts may be forced to reverse course, leading to layoffs and stagnating wages once again.

Second, and perhaps more destabilizing, is the climate of uncertainty created by federal policy shifts. The current administration’s moves to dramatically restructure the Department of Education and its temporary withholding of billions in funding for key programs have created a whirlwind of instability. This makes long-term planning—the kind essential for hiring and retaining staff—incredibly difficult for school administrators. Furthermore, policies like the expansion of national school voucher programs threaten to divert crucial funding away from public school systems, potentially deepening budget shortfalls.

The Road Ahead: What Needs to Happen?

The role of a bus driver is more than just steering a vehicle; it’s the first touchpoint of the school day for millions of children and a vital link in the chain of public education. A healthy school system cannot function without them.

The recent wage-driven improvement proves that the market can respond, but it needs consistent support. With federal support receding and the policy landscape growing more unpredictable, the responsibility falls increasingly on state and local lawmakers to act.

To ensure every student has a reliable ride to school, we must:

  • Sustain the investment in competitive wages and benefits for bus drivers and all school support staff.
  • Protect public school funding from policies that divert resources to private voucher schemes.
  • Provide stability so school districts can create long-term, reliable hiring and retention plans.

The slight rebound in bus driver numbers is a welcome sign, but it’s a flicker in the dark. Without committed and stable support, the lights on our school buses—and the educational opportunities they represent—risk dimming for countless students.

Photo by Joshua Hoehne on Unsplash